Film and Felt

Apologies for the lag in updating this week. My company is moving offices, and it’s been extraordinarily time-consuming. Expect a return to consistency within days.

So, round 1 of the NFL Playoffs is upon us. Unfortunately, my beloved Jets are planted firmly on their couches (season wrap-up to come), but there’s still plenty for the football fan in me to enjoy.

Giants over Buccaneers:

I’m not overly impressed with either of these teams. Tampa’s defense is somewhat long in the tooth (though there’s been a bit of a renaissance this year), but they’re still very effective, and can hassle Eli Manning into mistakes if he’s not on top of his game. Manning must use the Giants’ near-win over New England in the season finale to springboard himself to a new level. Now wrapping up his fourth season, Eli no longer gets the benefit of time; there’s been too little progress, too few things to build on. Game-to-game, play-to-play, Manning is far too erratic. This is his chance to make a statement; that he’s a Super Bowl quarterback, and can lead the Giants deep into the playoffs. He gets a good matchup here; Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly are cagey veterans, but they’re going to gamble, and Eli can beat them over-the-top to Plaxico Burress. Brandon Jacobs must be effective early and often to take the pressure off, and his power should match up well against a Tampa D built on speed.

On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay chose to sit its starters for the final two (meaningless) games of the year, a strategy that’s always produced mixed results. Given that the Bucs rely on rhythm and balance over big plays, it’s more likely to backfire here. If Jeff Garcia is out of whack, it could lead to turnovers and poor field position against the Giants’ top-notch pass rush. Tampa Bay isn’t a come-from-behind team, so Earnest Graham needs to churn out yards, both on the ground and as a check-down option. This one could go either way, but the Giants should be sharper and have been excellent on the road all year. Giants 23, Bucs 17.

Jaguars over Steelers

A month ago, Pittsburgh looked much tougher than they do now. Willie Parker is out, so it’ll be tough sledding for Najeh Davenport against Jacksonville’s mammoth interior line. That means Ben Roethlisberger, who’s had a breakout year throwing the ball, must carry the offense and hit some deep plays to Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, and Heath Miller to keep Jacksonville on their heels. The Jaguars’ secondary can be beaten, but Big Ben’s OL is pretty shaky, and I’m not convinced he’ll remain upright enough to pull off the big plays needed to win. Jacksonville is a tough, physical team who reminds me a lot of Pittsburgh’s 2005 championship squad. David Garrard is making big plays with his arm & legs, and minimizing turnovers, but most importantly, the Steelers are vulnerable to the run with Aaron Smith sidelined. Expect the two-headed monster of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to put up some big numbers. Jaguars 27, Steelers 14.

Seahawks over Redskins

Washington’s the chic pick right now, with the emotional boost from Sean Taylor’s tragic murder and the out-of-nowhere strong play of backup journeyman QB Todd Collins, who’s replaced Jason Campbell (kneecap) in the lineup. Their defense is playing with fire, and they could cause Seattle—a predominantly one-dimensional offensive unit thanks to Shaun Alexander’s rapid decline—problems by hassling Matt Hasselbeck into mistakes. Still, I don’t see it. Hasselbeck’s had one of his best seasons, should spread the ball out to a deep receiving core, and Washington is fairly thin in their secondary after veteran starters Shawn Springs and Fred Smoot. Meanwhile, far too few people are mentioning that Seattle has a fine secondary (and overall defense) themselves. Collins is a career backup for a reason, and while Clinton Portis gives the Skins a shot, I think Seattle pulls away in the second half. Seahawks 24, Redskins 10.

Chargers over Titans

The gimme of the week. On one side, we have a team deep with talent on both sides of the ball that went 14-2 last year, and has won six in a row this season after a shaky start. They also happen to boast the best RB in the game, a ball-hawking defense, and a desire to redeem themselves from last year’s playoff loss. On the other side, we have Tennessee, who’s hoping their QB with a 9-17 TD/INT ratio can take the field. The Titans need to force Philip Rivers into a lot of mistakes early to have a chance here, because if they fall behind by two touchdowns or more, it’s over. Chargers 30, Titans 7.