Film and Felt

That was quite a Jets game.  There’s not much to say beyond wow!  What a shellacking; everything clicked.  The cohesion on both sides of the ball is really improving, and I feel pretty confident we can take one of the next two games (@ New England, @ Tennessee) if we play like this…

A short week (Thursday night game agaist the Pats), so I’ll report back then on the battle for first place!

(yes yes, I know, I’ve been awful at keeping this thing up.  September 13th!  An abomination.  Okay, I’m going to catch up some today, some more tomorrow, and lots more after the election…)

First; it was another disappointing finish for my Mets, with an eerily similar final weekend to last season that left us out in the cold, watching the hated Phillies (who are now in the fucking World Series! @$I@$) and Brewers claim playoff spots instead.  Unlike 2007, though, I think we won about the right amount of games for our talent level, especially once Jerry Manuel took over.  The bullpen was just in tatters, injuries to Billy Wagner and John Maine really hurt our pitching depth, and Ryan Church never really found his post-concussion stroke.  Pedro Martinez also looks DONE - he’s going to have a tough time latching on anywhere as more than a 5th starter, I’d imagine (though when Carlos Silva is getting nearly 50m, one never knows)…

At any rate, the pain wore off much quicker than last time around.  The core is in place for a superb future, as Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey look like a dynamite 1-2 punch for the next five years.  Upgrading the bullpen, seeing if Daniel Murphy can handle second base, and improving our organizational depth should be the major priorities.   I’m mixed on pursuing Francisco Rodriguez…he’s a dominant closer, but he’s going to make a killing in the FA market, and I’m very hesitant to pony up 75 million bucks for a 9th inning guy, especially one with so much wear & tear on his arm.  I’d rather go after Brian Fuentes of Colorado.

The infield looks set, as I assume we’ll pick up Carlos Delgado’s 8m option for 2009 (though a run at Mark Teixeira can’t be completely ruled out), and I’m hopeful Murphy - who was extremely impressive in the final two months of ‘08 - can be an adequate defensive second baseman; his bat would be a huge boost from that position.  Reyes and Wright are, of course, cornerstones.

If Murphy slides to second base, a LF will be needed; options include Fernando Martinez, who probably needs another year in the minors, a makeshift platoon of Nick Evans and a FA pickup, or a stopgap free agent to play every day.  I think option #3 is most likely.   Beltran and Church are locks in CF and RF respectively, assuming Church regains his form from the first two months of ‘08.

Oliver Perez is a FA, and while I’d love him back - he’s a perfect complement to Santana & Pelfrey in the 3/4 hole with Maine - I have a sneaking suspicion someone will ante up 5-80 for him.  Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone gave him six years.  Though he’s made serious strides as a Met, I’ve long since given up hope that he’ll put it all together and develop into a consistent ace…which makes me very reluctant to pay top dollar for him.  Call it 50/50 if he comes back.  Jon Niese impressed me enough with his curve to let him compete for the #5 job.  If Perez leaves, we’ll need a P to fill his spot.  Derek Lowe’s consistency would be a good fit.

Once the WS ends (hopefully with Tampa Bay victorious, though I’m not holding my breath), Omar can get to work.  I am, BTW, supportive of giving Minaya an extension - he’s mostly done great work with the squad, and I don’t consider him one of the problems.

So, can we hold on this year?  With 17 games left, we’re up by three games over the scrappy Phillies.  The good news; our starting pitching is much stronger this season, and the team is clearly far more relaxed.  The bad news; anything can happen.  It’s baseball.

Doubleheader today for the Mets, with Santana and Jon Niese throwing.  A split is a must, and a sweep would be lovely.  I’ll report back this evening…

Great win for the Jets to start the year, but of course, the big football news of the day (and it’s certainly related to the Jets) is Tom Brady’s knee injury, which appears likely to sideline him for the season; an MRI tomorrow appears to be a formality at this point.  It’s hard to overstate how devastating this is for the Patriots and their fans, and we’ll get the greatest test yet of Bill Belichick’s coaching genius.  He’s made his name mixing and matching random variables—before last year’s attack squadron, remember, he’d won with scrubs like Antowain Smith, David Patten, and Daniel Graham playing enormous roles.  But all that was due to Tom Brady’s extraordinary abilities; he always seemed to find the open man no matter who it was.  How else could Mike Vrabel have multiple TD receptions to his credit?  Without Brady, the AFC is blown wide open.  New England still has lots of weapons and should be a contender if Matt Cassel is adequate, but can they be anything more than slightly above average now?  We’ll see.

As for the Jets, it was a strong Week 1 performance.  It’s important to remember that this is not the same Miami team that went 1-15.  As critical as I’ve been about Chad Pennington in the past (and I maintain he’s not a championship QB), he’s light years better than the utter dreck the Dolphins trotted out there last year, and adds an aura of legitimacy to the team.  So, I expect Miami to win somewhere between four and six games this year, and be a weak-but-not-historically-bad team, and there was no reason to expect a blowout on the road while the new additions are still gelling.  All that said, the plusses and minuses from today:

Positives:

1. The run defense was worlds better than us suffering Jets fans are accustomed to.  Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown were swarmed everytime they touched the ball, and there were zero big plays.  Miami doesn’t have a first-rate offensive line, but it was a very encouraging start.

2. DWIGHT LOWERY!  The rookie 4th-rounder was fantastic playing opposite Darrelle Revis at CB, batting down at least three passes and showing strong tackling skills.  If he’s legit—and his College nickname, Dwight Swipe, indicates the skillset is there—then the pass defense receives a major boost.  Having two ballhawk cornerbacks can’t be underestimated in today’s pass-happy NFL, and it’s something the Jets haven’t had in years, if not decades. 

3. While the offensive line’s pass-blocking wasn’t perfect, the run-blocking looked in midseason form.  Thomas Jones had holes that simply weren’t there last year, and took advantage of them. 

4. Given that Favre is just getting comfortable in the offense and with his WR’s, it was impressive how much he looked like…Brett Favre.  The stupid fumble was classic Favre, but so was the nutty 4th-and-13 scrambling TD. 

Negatives:

1. There wasn’t the overall consistency I’d like to see going forward, and Vernon Gholston’s name wasn’t mentioned.

2. Coles was barely targeted, and seemed to have trouble separating.  I hope that’s not a long-term issue, because we really need him opposite Cotchery.

3. Nugent better be healthy, cuz I don’t want to see Kellen Clemens kicking on the sideline ever again.  If he’s at all banged up, I’d rather sign a stopgap for a week than take the chance of a defunct kicking game against the Patriots.

Coming Friday: a preview of Week 2’s Jets/Pats game. 

Wow.  If I’d written this piece two weeks ago, it would have been chock-full of vulgarities, profanities, and other various unpleasant diatribes.  Because as June came to a merciful close, the Mets were floundering at several games under .500, had just fired their manager in shameless fashion at 3AM, and were slammed with injuries and ineffectiveness in every corner.  If it wasn’t Ryan Church suffering from post-concussion syndrome, it was Moises Alou straining one body part while rehabbing another.  The bullpen was consistently contributing to gut-wrenching losses, including a week from hell from closer Billy Wagner.  And our new skipper hadn’t commanded a squad in years.  After such a promising offseason highlighted by the acquisition of Johan Santana, it was shaping up to be a lost year.

And then something clicked, and we woke up.  All of a sudden, Mike Pelfrey realized his best chance for long-term success was to sacrifice a few miles from his nasty sinking fastball in exchange for better command and movement, throw it 80% of the time, and induce grounder after grounder.  All of a sudden, role players like Fernando Tatis, Endy Chavez, and Damian Easley were coming up with clutch hits on a daily basis.  The bullpen was dominating.  And as we await the results of tonight’s game, the Mets are guaranteed to go into the All-Star break, after this hellish year, no more than 1.5 games out.  As the New York tabloids like to spout: “amazin’!”

Despite this satisfying 8-game winning streak (and counting), holes remain if the Mets are to mount a true World Series run.  Alou is out for the season; a torn hamstring finally sent the resilient-but-fragile geriatric down for the count.  Most likely, a solid career softened by injuries is over.  In many ways, this is for the best; Minaya won’t be tempted to go with the Chavez/Tatis tagteam in LF “until Moises returns,” which was certainly a plausible line.  With the good news that Ryan Church should return within a few weeks, we really only need to acquire one OF to drastically balance our lineup, while lengthening our bench in the process.  Jason Bay and Adam Dunn have been knocked around, but the price is likely to be too high; our farm system isn’t exactly deep, and I’m not excited about moving Fernando Martinez for those guys.  Randy Winn or Xavier Nady seem like more plausible fits.  A few people have knocked the Barry Bonds idea around, but I’d rather sign my brother-in-law than bring that toxic waste into a clubhouse that’s finally getting its 2006 mojo back.

If LF is shored up and Church comes back raking like he was before the injuries, the offense should be very strong.  One of my favorite Jerry Manuel traits is his willingness to go with the hot hand and utilize the bench, especially Ramon Castro and Easley.  Expect to see Luis Castillo play just 4-5 times a week when he returns, with Brian Schneider getting the same sort of playing time.  That’s good for everyone, as it gives the starters more rest and some deserving backups more run.  Elsewhere, Carlos Delgado looks to finally have his stroke back, and should remain a solid #6 hitter, and the Reyes/Wright/Beltran trio is just fine.

With Pelfrey’s emergence, the rotation looks deeper than any in the NL outside of Chicago.  Pedro hasn’t been himself in any way, shape, or form, but he seems healthy and I’m cautiously optimistic he’ll put together a decent (not spectacular, but adequate) second half.  Maine and Perez aren’t as consistent as I’d like, but both can pitch a SHO any time out, and most importantly, can shut down good and bad lineups alike.  Santana, despite some early problems with the gopher ball, has been as advertised; killer WHIP, K/BB ratio, and consistency.  He’s a true ace, and makes the rest of the rotation fall into step behind him.

Every team could use some bullpen help, and the Mets are no exception — Duaner Sanchez doesn’t have his 2006 form back, though he’s still above average — but really, the current crew has a nice mix of lefty/righty, power/soft-toss, and depth.  Heilman’s June resurgence has gone a long way in strengthening the pen’s core.

We’ll see if Omar has any tricks up his sleeve, but props to Manuel for loosening the collars and reminding the Mets how much fun this game can be; Jose Reyes looks like he breathes baseball again, as it should be.  Props to the team for its resilience, and props to Fernando Tatis for hitting the biggest HR of the year; a 2-run shot against the Phillies last Sunday after Billy Wagner blew the save with just one measly strike to go.  If the Mets do wind up putting together a strong season, I think that’s the at-bat we’ll all look back at as the real season-changer.  Let’s go, Mets!

Did I say all would be back to normal in a matter of days?  Scratch that…but we’re almost there!  Anyway, coming off a perfect 4-0 week, predictions for this round’s games:

Seahawks over Packers

My upset of the week.  These teams are very similar; dynamite passing attacks with deep WR cores, fast defenses, and not much emphasis on the run.  Ryan Grant gives Green Bay the edge in the running game (Shaun Alexander looks done; Seattle needs to give the ball to Maurice Morris and Leonard Weaver here),  but it’s unlikely that this game comes down to the trenches.  It’s much more likely that the team which forces more turnovers and converts more downfield bombs will emerge the victor.  Charles Woodson is banged up, and GB hasn’t really been sharp in almost a month now.  Meanwhile, Seattle pulled away from an emotionally charged Redskin team last week, and matches up with Green Bay as well as anyone.  Expect Matt Hasselbeck to spread Green Bay out and give them a dose of their own medicine…and expect Marcus Trufaunt to make a game-changing play.  This one could go either way, but I think Brett Favre tosses a killer INT, and Seattle pulls it out.  Seahawks 27, Packers 24

Patriots over Jaguars

Blah blah, Jacksonville matches up well with New England, blah blah.  Well, theoretically, they do, with two excellent running backs, a QB who doesn’t turn the ball over, and a tough front 7.  To have a chance at beating New England, you have to control the clock and minimize their big plays.  And one thing’s for sure; the Jaguars won’t be afraid of the Patriots.  They’ll fight and claw.  But they just don’t have the horses to complete with New England over 60 minutes.   David Garrard threw 3 INT’s all season…and then tossed two last week as Jacksonville barely escaped with a win.  He’ll have to be perfect today.  The Patriots’ D isn’t anything special, but it comes up big when it needs to, and Jacksonville lacks the downfield weapons to keep New England’s front 7 honest.  If the Pats come out firing and take a quick 14-0, 17-0 lead, this one’s over.  And unfortunately (as I hate the damn Pats), I think they do just that.  Brady & co. may yet be stopped in their quest for perfection, but it won’t be this round.  Patriots 30, Jaguars 13

Colts over Chargers

I’m seeing way too many predictions of a blowout here for my tastes.  San Diego has oodles of talent; they’ve won seven straight games; and they beat Indy (albeit a banged-up Colts team) earlier this year.  The key here is Philip Rivers.  He needs to play like he did in the second half last week for the entire game, which is an especially daunting task if Antonio Gates is unable to go.  LaDainian Tomlinson also must put up much bigger numbers than last week’s sleepwalk.  Thing is, both these things could happen against an Indy team that’s been on cruise-control for three weeks, and is without Dwight Freeney.  Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson are both capable of keeping Indy’s defense from exclusively keying on Tomlinson.

…that said, I don’t think San Diego pulls it out.  Peyton Manning finally has his full arsenal healthy, and even a rusty Marvin Harrison won’t keep Manning from putting up points in bunches.  Indy’s swarming defense is likely to cause Rivers fits and force some turnovers.  And despite the fact that Tony Dungy’s squad hasn’t shown it, I think the defending champs feel slighted by all the attention New England’s received, and are chomping at the bit to get another crack at the Pats.  San Diego fights, but Indy gets their wish.  Colts 30, Chargers 20

Cowboys over Giants

A great performance by Eli Manning last week has Giant fans dreaming of a Super Bowl run.  It’s not out of the question.  New York has a great pass rush, and Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs are giving the Giants the Thunder & Lightning production that Tiki Barber & Ron Dayne (well, mostly Dayne) never lived up to.  The Giants know Dallas well, and the Cowboys haven’t played sharp football in awhile.  Tony Romo’s struggles of late, albeit in mostly meaningless scenarios, are particularly worrisome for Dallas lovers.

Still, I don’t think the Giants match up that well with the Cowboys.  If Terrell Owens plays, New York’s secondary has no answer for Owens, Witten, Crayton, and co.  Marion Barber always gives the Giants fits,  and if Romo isn’t overanxious, he’ll be dying to erase the bad taste of last year’s playoff loss to Seattle.  On the other side of the ball, Manning must play as well as last week, and turn in a few more downfield plays; deep is where Dallas is most vulnerable.   Kevin Boss is the X-Factor here; can he stretch the middle against Roy Williams?  I think this a hotly contested game with a few on-field scuffles, and if Romo struggles, the Giants could snatch it away.  But I predict Romo comes out focused, and leads Dallas to the win.

Cowboys 27, Giants 20

Apologies for the lag in updating this week. My company is moving offices, and it’s been extraordinarily time-consuming. Expect a return to consistency within days.

So, round 1 of the NFL Playoffs is upon us. Unfortunately, my beloved Jets are planted firmly on their couches (season wrap-up to come), but there’s still plenty for the football fan in me to enjoy.

Giants over Buccaneers:

I’m not overly impressed with either of these teams. Tampa’s defense is somewhat long in the tooth (though there’s been a bit of a renaissance this year), but they’re still very effective, and can hassle Eli Manning into mistakes if he’s not on top of his game. Manning must use the Giants’ near-win over New England in the season finale to springboard himself to a new level. Now wrapping up his fourth season, Eli no longer gets the benefit of time; there’s been too little progress, too few things to build on. Game-to-game, play-to-play, Manning is far too erratic. This is his chance to make a statement; that he’s a Super Bowl quarterback, and can lead the Giants deep into the playoffs. He gets a good matchup here; Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly are cagey veterans, but they’re going to gamble, and Eli can beat them over-the-top to Plaxico Burress. Brandon Jacobs must be effective early and often to take the pressure off, and his power should match up well against a Tampa D built on speed.

On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay chose to sit its starters for the final two (meaningless) games of the year, a strategy that’s always produced mixed results. Given that the Bucs rely on rhythm and balance over big plays, it’s more likely to backfire here. If Jeff Garcia is out of whack, it could lead to turnovers and poor field position against the Giants’ top-notch pass rush. Tampa Bay isn’t a come-from-behind team, so Earnest Graham needs to churn out yards, both on the ground and as a check-down option. This one could go either way, but the Giants should be sharper and have been excellent on the road all year. Giants 23, Bucs 17.

Jaguars over Steelers

A month ago, Pittsburgh looked much tougher than they do now. Willie Parker is out, so it’ll be tough sledding for Najeh Davenport against Jacksonville’s mammoth interior line. That means Ben Roethlisberger, who’s had a breakout year throwing the ball, must carry the offense and hit some deep plays to Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, and Heath Miller to keep Jacksonville on their heels. The Jaguars’ secondary can be beaten, but Big Ben’s OL is pretty shaky, and I’m not convinced he’ll remain upright enough to pull off the big plays needed to win. Jacksonville is a tough, physical team who reminds me a lot of Pittsburgh’s 2005 championship squad. David Garrard is making big plays with his arm & legs, and minimizing turnovers, but most importantly, the Steelers are vulnerable to the run with Aaron Smith sidelined. Expect the two-headed monster of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to put up some big numbers. Jaguars 27, Steelers 14.

Seahawks over Redskins

Washington’s the chic pick right now, with the emotional boost from Sean Taylor’s tragic murder and the out-of-nowhere strong play of backup journeyman QB Todd Collins, who’s replaced Jason Campbell (kneecap) in the lineup. Their defense is playing with fire, and they could cause Seattle—a predominantly one-dimensional offensive unit thanks to Shaun Alexander’s rapid decline—problems by hassling Matt Hasselbeck into mistakes. Still, I don’t see it. Hasselbeck’s had one of his best seasons, should spread the ball out to a deep receiving core, and Washington is fairly thin in their secondary after veteran starters Shawn Springs and Fred Smoot. Meanwhile, far too few people are mentioning that Seattle has a fine secondary (and overall defense) themselves. Collins is a career backup for a reason, and while Clinton Portis gives the Skins a shot, I think Seattle pulls away in the second half. Seahawks 24, Redskins 10.

Chargers over Titans

The gimme of the week. On one side, we have a team deep with talent on both sides of the ball that went 14-2 last year, and has won six in a row this season after a shaky start. They also happen to boast the best RB in the game, a ball-hawking defense, and a desire to redeem themselves from last year’s playoff loss. On the other side, we have Tennessee, who’s hoping their QB with a 9-17 TD/INT ratio can take the field. The Titans need to force Philip Rivers into a lot of mistakes early to have a chance here, because if they fall behind by two touchdowns or more, it’s over. Chargers 30, Titans 7.